बुधवार, 1 फ़रवरी 2012

Uttrakhand Election 2012 - Janpaksh Today Exit Poll assesment

 Cong May Emerge single largest Party in Uttrakhand

S.Rajen Todariya

Janpaksh Today and Center For Media Research And Analysis  has conducted a broad base survey to  understand and forecast the verdict of the people of Uttrakhand. Intellectuals including journalists, common voters of different region, cast and religion were contacted and their opinion was discussed thoroughly with the experts of electoral behavior.
After this long exercise the possible picture of coming assembly was prepared. This picture states that Uttrakhand is heading towards a hung assembly in which Congress would be the single largest party. She may fall short of majority by 2 to 8 MLA. Even then Cong would be able to manage it with the help of her rebel candidates. It is predicted that Cong would be able to win 27 to 34 seats in the assembly. BJP may bag below 25 seats, UKD may win at least 2 seats , B.S.P. may win 3 to 6 seats, the tally of independents may go up to 3 to 8 seats. BJP may loose 5 to 7 seats in Kumaun division and 6 to 8 seats from Garhwal Region. Exit poll survey and analysis shows that BJP is on the way to loose at least 12 seats. There are clear indication that Cong has done better in Chamoli, Pauri, Tehri, Dehradun, Haridwar, Udhamsinghnagar, Nainital, Pithoragarh and Bageshwar districts. BSP may suffer in Haridwar and Udhamsinghnagar. Chief Minister of Uttrakhand General B.C.Khanduri is finding himself in a tough contest.This possibility can not be ruled out that result of Kotdwar constituency may prove a major upset to BJP. Cong rebel from Devprayag, Rudraprayag, Dhanaulti, Kaladhungi , Gadarpur and Lalkunwa seats heading to touch the victory mark. While BJP rebel from Pratapnagar, Purola, Karnprayag seats are also in good position. UKD may bag Yamunotri and Dharchula seats and Raksha Morcha may win the Lansdowne seat.  

The possible picture of Uttrakhand assembly
                                      Total Seats-70
                                       Cong- 27 to 34
                                       BJP-   21 to 25
                                       BSP-   3  to 6
                                       UKD-  1 to 3
                                       Others - 3 to 8

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